Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates
Average mortgage rates edged up again last Friday. Although the past week has seen mostly gains, every move was small. And these rates remain exceptionally low.
The first thing was like mortgage rates could rise again today. Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said President Joe Biden’s $ 1.9 trillion relief plan could generate enough growth to restore full employment by next year, according to AP. And such optimism tends to increase these rates.
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|Conventional 30 years fixed||2.8%||2.8%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 15 years fixed||2,362%||2,362%||Unchanged|
|5-year conventional MRA||3%||2,743%||Unchanged|
|30-year fixed FHA||2,438%||3,415%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed FHA||2,375%||3.317%||Unchanged|
|5 years ARM FHA||2.5%||3,201%||-0.01%|
|Fixed VA over 30 years||2,375%||2,547%||Unchanged|
|VA fixed 15 years||2,063%||2,382%||Unchanged|
|ARM VA 5 years||2.5%||2,379%||-0.01%|
|Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our pricing assumptions here.|
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders change rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest information on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?
The dominant characteristic that surrounds the mortgage market is uncertainty. And the associated rates respond to an alternation of optimism and pessimism about the pandemic and the economy as news stories emerge and recede.
Recently, optimism has been stronger than pessimism, leading to a succession of rate hikes. And, while that feeling may light up a dime, it may not be.
I therefore suggest caution. And my personal rate foreclosure recommendations are:
- LOCK if closing 7 days
- LOCK if closing 15 days
- LOCK if the closure 30 days
- FLOAT if the closure 45 days
- FLOAT if closing 60 days
But, with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a look at the state of play this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time last Friday morning, was as follows:
- The 10-year Treasury bill yield increased to 1.18% from 1.14%. (Bad for mortgage rates) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular yields on Treasury bonds, although less recently
- Main stock market indices were higher at the opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and increases yields and mortgage rates. The reverse happens when the indices are lower
- Oil price relaxed up to $ 57.46 off $ 57.11 per barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates * because energy prices play an important role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.)
- Gold price rose to $ 1,833 from $ 1,803 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Corporate Fear and Greed Index – Bordered up to 61 of 59 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors drive down bond prices (and higher interest rates) when they exit the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Warnings about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. The Fed is now a big player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to go up) or weak (they might go down) to build on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates now seem likely to rise.
Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you should know:
- The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (well above $ 1 trillion) are expected to exert continued downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work wonders all the time. And read “$ 2 For once the Fed is affecting mortgage rates. Here’s why “if you want to understand this aspect of what’s going on
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care
- Only “$ 2op-tier” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they generally all follow the larger trend over time.
- When rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their fee schedules unchanged.
- Refinancing rates are generally close to those for purchases. But some types of refinancing are higher following a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?
I am expect mortgage rates to rise today. But, as always, that could change as the day goes on.
We have seen a lot more mortgage rate hikes than drops in the past 10 days. They mainly focused on the hopes surrounding the Biden administration’s $ 1.9 billion pandemic relief proposal – and the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.
Of course, such optimism could dissipate as suddenly as it appeared. Legislative snags on the relief plan could still arise or analyzes of its likely effects could become less optimistic. Worse yet, it is possible that mutations in COVID-19 could make the economic damage from the pandemic even greater than what is currently feared.
But, for now, hope seems to have taken hold in the markets. And, assuming it lasts, it could mean further mortgage rate hikes ahead.
It would not be irrational for you to bet on mood swings and lower mortgage rates. But it would be just that: a bet.
For more on my broader thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which comes out every Saturday shortly after 10 a.m. (ET).
Over the past few months, the overall trend in mortgage rates is clearly downward. And a new all-time low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record was on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. But then rates rose, albeit modestly. And in Freddie’s Feb.4 report, that weekly average was 2.73%.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
In the longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, the real estate sector and mortgage rates. .
And here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
The figures in the table below are for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. And they were all published between January 14 and 20:
|Forecaster||T1 / 21||T2 / 21||Q3 / 21||T4 / 21|
But, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there is certainly a widening of the gap as the year progresses.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been frightened by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to the more vanilla mortgages and refinances.
But others remain courageous. And you can still probably find the cash refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. Just shop more widely.
But, of course, you should be doing a lot of comparisons regardless of what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau states:
Shopping around for your mortgage can save you money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage Reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.
The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an advertisement for any products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, its parent company or its affiliates.